Financial Stress Forecast
Financial Stress
Among Consumers
Financial stress, a pervasive issue affecting many individuals, can lead to anxiety, depression, and even physical health problems. The Financial Stress Forecast and Debt Burden Scale are invaluable tools for understanding the extent of this problem and predicting potential economic downturns. By providing insights into Americans’ financial behaviors and attitudes, these metrics enable policymakers, financial institutions, and individuals to take proactive measures to mitigate financial hardship and promote overall economic stability.
The Current Forecast
The Consumer Debt Score (CDS) hit its all-time peak of 57 in 2025 Q3, but the most alarming trend is its move above the 50-point threshold. A score above 50 indicates that more consumers are struggling to meet their obligations than those who are managing to meet them. This has become the new reality for American households:
- Since 2024 Q2, the CDS has been consistently above 50 for four straight quarters. Prior to 2024 Q2, this was not the case since the 2019 Q4 score of 49.
- The overall trend has changed dramatically: The CDS showed a period of stability from 2018 Q1 through 2020 Q1 (9 quarters), yet since 2024 Q2, there has been a huge increase in just five quarters.
This surge highlights that the tightening of credit tends that can adversely impact the people who want to affordably repay the debt they owe but can’t seem to catch a break.
The Forecast History
How it works.
The NFCC Financial Stress Forecast can predict delinquency rates among consumers with credit card debt.
It gives insight on the federal reserve delinquency and charge off rates for the upcoming quarter with 95% accuracy.
The NFCC Financial Stress Forecast serves as a critical early warning indicator of potential economic instability.
National Foundation
for Credit Counseling
Founded in 1951, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling is the oldest nonprofit dedicated to improving people’s financial well-being. With 1,215 NFCC Certified Credit Counselors serving 50 states and all U.S. territories, NFCC nonprofit counselors are financial advocates, empowering millions of consumers to take charge of their finances through one-on-one financial reviews that address credit card debt, student loans, housing decisions, and overall money management.
